Scouting Report
Patrik Berglund holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Berglund on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Burns wins 45.9% vs left-shot opponents — Berglund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Burns 47.2% vs Berglund 48.7% (-3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Berglund 55.0%
Defensive zone
Berglund 55.9%
Neutral zone
Berglund 53.2%
Result
Patrik Berglund favored at 54.2%
45.8%
54.2%
Burns
Berglund
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Burns
Berglund
Last 6: Burns 3-3 Berglund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Burns
Berglund
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Burns
1
0
Burns
Berglund
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Berglund
1
2
Burns
Berglund
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Burns
Berglund
Edge
Even Strength
46.8% (126)
49.0% (4,697)
-2.2%
Power Play
33.3% (21)
51.3% (548)
-18.0%
Penalty Kill
66.7% (3)
43.2% (461)
+23.5%
On penalty kill, Burns has a +23.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Berglund shoots left. Burns is 45.9% vs left-shot opponents (109).
Burns shoots right. Berglund is 50.2% vs right-shot opponents (2,046).
Home / Away
Burns
Berglund
Home
43.3% (90)
50.9% (2,829)
Away
48.3% (60)
46.6% (2,904)
By Period
Burns
Berglund
P1
38.3%
49.3%
P2
45.3%
48.2%
P3
52.2%
49.0%
OT
50.0%
39.7%
Final 5 min
62.5%
50.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Burns
48.0%▲
45.3%
45.3%
Berglund
60.0%▲
57.0%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 17, 2013 | 2 | 10:14 | Neutral | Patrik Berglund |
| Dec 17, 2013 | 2 | 01:19 | Defensive | Brent Burns |
| Dec 17, 2013 | 1 | 17:20 | Offensive | Brent Burns |
| Oct 15, 2013 | 3 | 06:57 | Offensive | Patrik Berglund |
| Oct 15, 2013 | 3 | 05:06 | Neutral | Patrik Berglund |
| Oct 15, 2013 | 2 | 11:01 | Neutral | Brent Burns |