Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.2% vs 52.5%). Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Boyle wins 56.8% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Boyle 51.8% vs Pavelski 52.2% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 50.1%
Defensive zone
Boyle 78.1%
Neutral zone
Boyle 56.6%
Result
Brian Boyle favored at 61.2%
61.2%
38.8%
Boyle
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Boyle
Pavelski
Last 5: Boyle 1-4 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
3
Boyle
Pavelski
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Boyle
Pavelski
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Boyle
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (408)
51.3% (643)
+0.4%
Power Play
60.3% (68)
58.1% (172)
+2.2%
Penalty Kill
48.6% (105)
46.3% (41)
+2.3%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Boyle is 56.8% vs right-shot opponents (227).
Boyle shoots left. Pavelski is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (657).
Home / Away
Boyle
Pavelski
Home
54.2% (238)
53.8% (431)
Away
50.7% (343)
51.1% (425)
By Period
Boyle
Pavelski
P1
53.9%
48.4%
P2
52.1%
52.0%
P3
50.7%
55.6%
OT
50.0%
80.0%
Final 5 min
49.1%
51.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Boyle
40.0%▼
42.0%
52.2%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2017 | 3 | 11:59 | Defensive | Brian Boyle |
| Feb 28, 2017 | 3 | 02:08 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 28, 2017 | 1 | 14:40 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 28, 2017 | 1 | 14:27 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 19, 2017 | 1 | 19:07 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |