Scouting Report
Brian Flynn holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Flynn 49.8% vs Nelson 48.3% (+1.5%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 8-6 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 74.7%
Defensive zone
Flynn 65.8%
Neutral zone
Nelson 54.5%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 50.1%
49.9%
50.1%
Flynn
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
8
(14 meetings)
6
8
Flynn
Nelson
Last 10: Flynn 3-7 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
4
Flynn
Nelson
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
4
4
Flynn
Nelson
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Flynn
1
0
Flynn
Nelson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Flynn
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
50.2% (989)
47.9% (9,695)
+2.3%
Power Play
51.0% (49)
54.5% (1,132)
-3.5%
Penalty Kill
48.3% (265)
43.8% (783)
+4.5%
On penalty kill, Flynn has a +4.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Flynn is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (889).
Flynn shoots right. Nelson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,075).
Home / Away
Flynn
Nelson
Home
50.8% (661)
50.0% (5,845)
Away
48.8% (642)
46.5% (5,766)
By Period
Flynn
Nelson
P1
47.3%
48.7%
P2
51.8%
48.5%
P3
50.0%
47.7%
OT
58.3%
45.6%
Final 5 min
47.2%
47.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Flynn
32.0%▼
50.5%
49.8%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 2015 | 1 | 17:04 | Defensive | Brian Flynn |
| Feb 8, 2015 | 3 | 07:56 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 8, 2015 | 3 | 05:04 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 8, 2015 | 2 | 11:59 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 27, 2014 | OT | 02:01 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 15, 2014 | 3 | 12:33 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 15, 2014 | 3 | 06:25 | Offensive | Brian Flynn |
| Mar 15, 2014 | 2 | 17:42 | Defensive | Brian Flynn |
| Mar 15, 2014 | 2 | 14:18 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 15, 2014 | 2 | 11:24 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 15, 2014 | 2 | 05:32 | Defensive | Brian Flynn |
| Mar 15, 2014 | 2 | 00:55 | Defensive | Brian Flynn |
| Mar 15, 2014 | 1 | 12:36 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 15, 2014 | 1 | 03:31 | Neutral | Brian Flynn |