Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.3% vs 49.2%). Look for Rowney on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Nelson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Rowney shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Rowney 49.2% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Rowney leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 69.2%
Defensive zone
Rowney 68.5%
Neutral zone
Rowney 52.3%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 51.6%
51.6%
48.4%
Nelson
Rowney
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
7
(11 meetings)
4
7
Nelson
Rowney
Last 10: Nelson 4-6 Rowney
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Rowney
2
3
Nelson
Rowney
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Rowney
1
3
Nelson
Rowney
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Rowney
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Rowney
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
49.4% (924)
-1.5%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
40.0% (5)
+14.5%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
48.6% (208)
-4.8%
On power play, Nelson has a +14.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Rowney shoots right. Nelson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,075).
Nelson shoots left. Rowney is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (791).
Home / Away
Nelson
Rowney
Home
50.0% (5,845)
50.4% (577)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
47.9% (560)
By Period
Nelson
Rowney
P1
48.7%
50.1%
P2
48.5%
47.9%
P3
47.7%
49.3%
OT
45.6%
60.0%
Final 5 min
47.8%
46.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Rowney
52.0%▲
45.0%
49.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2021 | 2 | 10:44 | Offensive | Carter Rowney |
| Dec 14, 2021 | 2 | 10:39 | Offensive | Carter Rowney |
| Dec 14, 2021 | 2 | 10:32 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 21, 2019 | 2 | 18:23 | Offensive | Carter Rowney |
| Jan 20, 2019 | 3 | 17:12 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 20, 2019 | 1 | 11:54 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 20, 2019 | 1 | 11:48 | Defensive | Carter Rowney |
| Jan 20, 2019 | 1 | 09:00 | Defensive | Carter Rowney |
| Jan 20, 2019 | 1 | 03:28 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 7, 2017 | 2 | 05:59 | Defensive | Carter Rowney |
| Dec 7, 2017 | 2 | 05:53 | Neutral | Carter Rowney |