Scouting Report
Carter Rowney holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Rowney on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.8% vs Rowney 49.4% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 52.9%
Defensive zone
Rowney 51.4%
Neutral zone
Rowney 53.4%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 50.3%
50.3%
49.7%
Nelson
Rowney
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Nelson
Rowney
Last 5: Nelson 3-2 Rowney
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Rowney
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Rowney
1
2
Nelson
Rowney
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Rowney
Edge
Even Strength
47.4% (1,020)
49.7% (298)
-2.3%
Power Play
51.5% (163)
66.7% (3)
-15.2%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (63)
45.7% (46)
-2.8%
On power play, Rowney has a +15.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Rowney shoots right. Nelson is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (425).
Nelson shoots left. Rowney is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (249).
Home / Away
Nelson
Rowney
Home
51.0% (641)
51.0% (143)
Away
44.1% (605)
48.0% (204)
By Period
Nelson
Rowney
P1
48.2%
49.6%
P2
48.1%
47.7%
P3
46.9%
50.9%
OT
42.9%
0.0%
Final 5 min
44.6%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.7%
Rowney
52.0%▲
45.0%
49.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2019 | 3 | 17:12 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 20, 2019 | 1 | 11:54 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 20, 2019 | 1 | 11:48 | Defensive | Carter Rowney |
| Jan 20, 2019 | 1 | 09:00 | Defensive | Carter Rowney |
| Jan 20, 2019 | 1 | 03:28 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |