Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Dewar 47.7% (+7.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 57.1%
Defensive zone
Dewar 62.0%
Neutral zone
Dewar 52.2%
Result
Connor Dewar favored at 62.0%
38.0%
62.0%
Nelson
Dewar
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Nelson
Dewar
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dewar
0
1
Nelson
Dewar
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Dewar
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
53.6% (28)
-2.9%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
100.0% (1)
-41.4%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
30.8% (26)
+12.6%
On power play, Dewar has a +41.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dewar shoots left. Nelson is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Nelson shoots left. Dewar is 41.2% vs left-shot opponents (34).
Home / Away
Nelson
Dewar
Home
52.3% (621)
42.1% (19)
Away
48.9% (618)
44.4% (36)
By Period
Nelson
Dewar
P1
48.4%
52.6%
P2
53.5%
31.8%
P3
50.3%
53.8%
OT
41.2%
0.0%
Final 5 min
50.8%
43.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Dewar
44.0%▬
43.5%
43.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2026 | 3 | 14:59 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |