Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Dewar on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Dewar 45.5% (+3.2%)
H2H factor
Dewar leads 11-4 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Dewar 63.2%
Defensive zone
Dewar 88.5%
Neutral zone
Dewar 74.1%
Result
Connor Dewar favored at 75.3%
24.7%
75.3%
Nelson
Dewar
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
11
(15 meetings)
4
11
Nelson
Dewar
Last 10: Nelson 4-6 Dewar
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dewar
2
3
Nelson
Dewar
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dewar
0
5
Nelson
Dewar
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dewar
2
3
Nelson
Dewar
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Dewar
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
45.4% (1,008)
+2.5%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
60.9% (23)
-6.4%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
41.8% (194)
+2.0%
On power play, Dewar has a +6.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dewar shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Nelson shoots left. Dewar is 44.0% vs left-shot opponents (822).
Home / Away
Nelson
Dewar
Home
50.0% (5,845)
43.4% (588)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
46.8% (637)
By Period
Nelson
Dewar
P1
48.7%
43.9%
P2
48.5%
47.1%
P3
47.7%
44.3%
OT
45.6%
0.0%
Final 5 min
47.8%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Dewar
44.0%▬
43.5%
45.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2026 | 3 | 14:59 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 2 | 13:44 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 2 | 11:59 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 3 | 08:27 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 2 | 11:44 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 3 | 05:43 | Offensive | Connor Dewar |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 2 | 13:36 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 2 | 10:41 | Neutral | Connor Dewar |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 2 | 06:40 | Offensive | Connor Dewar |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 3 | 11:12 | Offensive | Connor Dewar |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 2 | 02:50 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Feb 28, 2023 | 2 | 15:13 | Neutral | Connor Dewar |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 2 | 07:17 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 1 | 00:41 | Neutral | Connor Dewar |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 1 | 00:34 | Defensive | Connor Dewar |