Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Stepan shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Stepan 53.4% (-7.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 68.4%
Defensive zone
Stepan 71.1%
Neutral zone
Nelson 51.2%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 51.3%
48.7%
51.3%
Nelson
Stepan
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Nelson
Stepan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Stepan
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
0
2
Nelson
Stepan
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Stepan
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
55.3% (358)
-8.4%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
0.0% (3)
+57.4%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
50.8% (61)
-25.8%
On power play, Nelson has a +57.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stepan shoots right. Nelson is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (324).
Nelson shoots left. Stepan is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (314).
Home / Away
Nelson
Stepan
Home
48.9% (521)
57.7% (213)
Away
45.5% (516)
50.7% (209)
By Period
Nelson
Stepan
P1
45.9%
56.3%
P2
48.0%
48.9%
P3
48.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
45.3%
57.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2023 | 3 | 02:52 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 1 | 03:36 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 2 | 08:24 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 1 | 19:53 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |