Scouting Report
Jacob Josefson holds a +8.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Nelson wins 46.7% vs left-shot opponents — Josefson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 44.4% vs Josefson 51.3% (-8.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Josefson 51.7%
Defensive zone
Josefson 54.2%
Neutral zone
Nelson 51.4%
Result
Jacob Josefson favored at 50.1%
49.9%
50.1%
Nelson
Josefson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Nelson
Josefson
Last 8: Nelson 4-4 Josefson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Josefson
0
2
Nelson
Josefson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Josefson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
2
Nelson
Josefson
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Josefson
Edge
Even Strength
43.0% (688)
51.4% (290)
-8.4%
Power Play
54.8% (42)
53.8% (13)
+1.0%
Penalty Kill
44.3% (61)
60.0% (10)
-15.7%
On penalty kill, Josefson has a +15.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Josefson shoots left. Nelson is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (505).
Nelson shoots left. Josefson is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (234).
Home / Away
Nelson
Josefson
Home
41.9% (391)
55.7% (185)
Away
45.5% (400)
46.1% (128)
By Period
Nelson
Josefson
P1
47.1%
45.5%
P2
43.0%
51.3%
P3
40.9%
59.2%
OT
63.6%
0.0%
Final 5 min
43.6%
57.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
43.7%
Josefson
42.0%▼
44.0%
51.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2017 | 3 | 18:33 | Offensive | Jacob Josefson |
| Apr 8, 2017 | 3 | 05:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 8, 2017 | 2 | 01:48 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 18, 2017 | 3 | 08:58 | Neutral | Jacob Josefson |
| Feb 18, 2017 | 3 | 06:21 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 18, 2017 | 3 | 03:49 | Neutral | Jacob Josefson |
| Feb 18, 2017 | 3 | 00:48 | Offensive | Jacob Josefson |
| Feb 18, 2017 | 2 | 00:31 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |