Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Nelson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Spezza shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Spezza 54.7% (-6.4%)
H2H factor
Spezza leads 13-5 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 86.2%
Defensive zone
Nelson 74.0%
Neutral zone
Nelson 74.3%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 78.8%
78.8%
21.2%
Nelson
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
13
(18 meetings)
5
13
Nelson
Spezza
Last 10: Nelson 4-6 Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
1
6
Nelson
Spezza
7 total
Defensive Zone
Even
4
4
Nelson
Spezza
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
0
3
Nelson
Spezza
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
54.4% (7,990)
-6.5%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
56.8% (1,726)
-2.3%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
52.7% (643)
-8.9%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +8.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. Nelson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,075).
Nelson shoots left. Spezza is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,310).
Home / Away
Nelson
Spezza
Home
50.0% (5,845)
56.8% (5,066)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
52.7% (5,332)
By Period
Nelson
Spezza
P1
48.7%
55.7%
P2
48.5%
54.4%
P3
47.7%
54.1%
OT
45.6%
51.5%
Final 5 min
47.8%
54.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2022 | 1 | 09:53 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 4, 2020 | 3 | 15:51 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 23, 2018 | 3 | 08:11 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Dec 23, 2018 | 3 | 03:43 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Nov 18, 2018 | 1 | 17:51 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 13, 2017 | 1 | 15:24 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 13, 2017 | 1 | 10:51 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 2, 2017 | 3 | 19:21 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 2, 2017 | 3 | 01:59 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 2, 2017 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 2, 2017 | 2 | 00:10 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 2, 2017 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 19, 2017 | 3 | 18:50 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 3, 2015 | 2 | 11:07 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 3, 2015 | 1 | 08:04 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 25, 2014 | 3 | 06:31 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 25, 2014 | 3 | 02:32 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Oct 25, 2014 | 1 | 11:58 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |