Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Nelson wins 38.5% vs right-shot opponents — Spezza shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 44.4% vs Spezza 51.9% (-8.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 67.5%
Defensive zone
Nelson 85.3%
Neutral zone
Nelson 68.3%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 70.7%
70.7%
29.3%
Nelson
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
6
(6 meetings)
0
6
Nelson
Spezza
Last 6: Nelson 0-6 Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
0
3
Nelson
Spezza
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
0
1
Nelson
Spezza
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Spezza
0
2
Nelson
Spezza
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
43.0% (688)
51.3% (526)
-8.3%
Power Play
54.8% (42)
57.7% (123)
-2.9%
Penalty Kill
44.3% (61)
44.8% (29)
-0.5%
On even strength, Spezza has a +8.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. Nelson is 38.5% vs right-shot opponents (286).
Nelson shoots left. Spezza is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (491).
Home / Away
Nelson
Spezza
Home
41.9% (391)
53.7% (374)
Away
45.5% (400)
50.3% (304)
By Period
Nelson
Spezza
P1
47.1%
50.2%
P2
43.0%
50.2%
P3
40.9%
56.2%
OT
63.6%
66.7%
Final 5 min
43.6%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
43.7%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2017 | 3 | 19:21 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 2, 2017 | 3 | 01:59 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 2, 2017 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 2, 2017 | 2 | 00:10 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 2, 2017 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 19, 2017 | 3 | 18:50 | Offensive | Jason Spezza |