Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.5% vs Thornton 51.7% (-3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thornton 52.7%
Defensive zone
Nelson 70.8%
Neutral zone
Thornton 51.0%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 53.0%
53.0%
47.0%
Nelson
Thornton
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Nelson
Thornton
Last 5: Nelson 1-4 Thornton
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
0
1
Nelson
Thornton
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Thornton
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thornton
0
3
Nelson
Thornton
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Thornton
Edge
Even Strength
48.0% (681)
52.7% (372)
-4.7%
Power Play
54.0% (87)
47.6% (63)
+6.4%
Penalty Kill
40.5% (37)
60.0% (5)
-19.5%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +19.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thornton shoots left. Nelson is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (555).
Nelson shoots left. Thornton is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (252).
Home / Away
Nelson
Thornton
Home
51.1% (399)
51.2% (250)
Away
45.6% (406)
53.2% (190)
By Period
Nelson
Thornton
P1
51.8%
56.1%
P2
47.5%
52.8%
P3
46.5%
47.4%
OT
20.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
51.1%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2017 | 1 | 14:20 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 1 | 05:14 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 14, 2017 | 3 | 00:08 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 14, 2017 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 14, 2017 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |