Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Thornton 54.3% (-6.0%)
H2H factor
Thornton leads 11-9 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 52.4%
Defensive zone
Nelson 54.5%
Neutral zone
Nelson 50.2%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 52.6%
52.6%
47.4%
Nelson
Thornton
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
11
(20 meetings)
9
11
Nelson
Thornton
Last 10: Nelson 6-4 Thornton
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
0
6
Nelson
Thornton
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
6
2
Nelson
Thornton
8 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Nelson
Thornton
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Thornton
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
53.5% (6,640)
-5.6%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
57.2% (1,387)
-2.7%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
56.7% (427)
-12.9%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +12.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thornton shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Nelson shoots left. Thornton is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (5,220).
Home / Away
Nelson
Thornton
Home
50.0% (5,845)
55.8% (4,271)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
52.8% (4,219)
By Period
Nelson
Thornton
P1
48.7%
55.0%
P2
48.5%
53.3%
P3
47.7%
54.4%
OT
45.6%
56.4%
Final 5 min
47.8%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2021 | 1 | 14:54 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 1 | 05:52 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 23, 2020 | 3 | 17:19 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 23, 2020 | 3 | 17:12 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 23, 2019 | 2 | 02:07 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 1 | 14:20 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 1 | 05:14 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 14, 2017 | 3 | 00:08 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 14, 2017 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 14, 2017 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 18, 2016 | 3 | 17:16 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 18, 2016 | 3 | 09:54 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 16, 2014 | 3 | 12:47 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 16, 2014 | 2 | 01:53 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 16, 2014 | 1 | 10:48 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 14, 2014 | 3 | 10:38 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 14, 2014 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 10, 2013 | 3 | 14:05 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 10, 2013 | 1 | 13:19 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Dec 10, 2013 | 1 | 01:53 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |