Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Stenlund on defensive-zone draws (89% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.5% vs Stenlund 54.2% (-4.0%)
H2H factor
Stenlund leads 10-3 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 88.9%
Defensive zone
Nelson 56.1%
Neutral zone
Nelson 68.4%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 63.0%
63.0%
37.0%
Nelson
Stenlund
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
10
(13 meetings)
3
10
Nelson
Stenlund
Last 10: Nelson 2-8 Stenlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
0
2
Nelson
Stenlund
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
1
8
Nelson
Stenlund
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Stenlund
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Stenlund
Edge
Even Strength
50.6% (871)
56.2% (605)
-5.6%
Power Play
58.1% (160)
53.2% (47)
+4.9%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (193)
51.8% (305)
-7.8%
On penalty kill, Stenlund has a +7.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stenlund shoots right. Nelson is 51.5% vs right-shot opponents (429).
Nelson shoots left. Stenlund is 58.0% vs left-shot opponents (638).
Home / Away
Nelson
Stenlund
Home
52.3% (621)
57.0% (446)
Away
48.8% (603)
52.6% (511)
By Period
Nelson
Stenlund
P1
48.3%
55.4%
P2
53.4%
53.2%
P3
50.4%
56.2%
OT
41.2%
41.2%
Final 5 min
50.9%
57.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
62.0%▲
54.5%
50.6%
Stenlund
56.0%▼
58.0%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2026 | 3 | 18:35 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 3 | 03:43 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 1 | 19:56 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 1 | 11:27 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 1 | 11:20 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 1 | 11:12 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 1 | 07:48 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 15:07 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 04:47 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 21, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 19:14 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 05:30 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 01:53 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |