Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Stenlund on defensive-zone draws (92% H2H, 13 meetings). Nelson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Stenlund shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Stenlund 54.0% (-5.8%)
H2H factor
Stenlund leads 18-9 in 27 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 87.4%
Defensive zone
Nelson 58.8%
Neutral zone
Nelson 65.5%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 68.7%
68.7%
31.3%
Nelson
Stenlund
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
18
(27 meetings)
9
18
Nelson
Stenlund
Last 10: Nelson 2-8 Stenlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
5
3
Nelson
Stenlund
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
1
12
Nelson
Stenlund
13 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Nelson
Stenlund
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Stenlund
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
55.3% (2,703)
-7.4%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
52.6% (116)
+1.9%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
50.6% (919)
-6.8%
On even strength, Stenlund has a +7.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stenlund shoots right. Nelson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,075).
Nelson shoots left. Stenlund is 56.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,807).
Home / Away
Nelson
Stenlund
Home
50.0% (5,845)
54.3% (1,848)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
53.9% (1,890)
By Period
Nelson
Stenlund
P1
48.7%
56.4%
P2
48.5%
53.3%
P3
47.7%
52.8%
OT
45.6%
52.9%
Final 5 min
47.8%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2026 | 3 | 18:35 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 3 | 03:43 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 1 | 19:56 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 1 | 11:27 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 1 | 11:20 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 1 | 11:12 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 1 | 07:48 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 15:07 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 04:47 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 21, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 19:14 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 05:30 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 01:53 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 3 | 15:27 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 3 | 15:19 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 3 | 13:13 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 2 | 07:01 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 2 | 04:47 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 1 | 16:23 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 1 | 11:10 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |