Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Nelson wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Necas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.1% vs Necas 41.9% (+7.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Necas 62.7%
Defensive zone
Nelson 64.9%
Neutral zone
Nelson 50.5%
Result
Martin Necas favored at 55.8%
44.2%
55.8%
Nelson
Necas
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Nelson
Necas
Last 8: Nelson 4-4 Necas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
2
Nelson
Necas
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Necas
0
2
Nelson
Necas
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Necas
Edge
Even Strength
47.8% (9,510)
40.7% (797)
+7.1%
Power Play
54.1% (1,082)
40.0% (135)
+14.1%
Penalty Kill
43.5% (728)
54.1% (37)
-10.6%
On power play, Nelson has a +14.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Necas shoots right. Nelson is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (3,964).
Nelson shoots left. Necas is 40.8% vs left-shot opponents (743).
Home / Away
Nelson
Necas
Home
49.8% (5,696)
39.2% (492)
Away
46.4% (5,625)
43.0% (477)
By Period
Nelson
Necas
P1
48.6%
39.9%
P2
48.4%
40.6%
P3
47.4%
43.3%
OT
46.4%
41.7%
Final 5 min
47.4%
42.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
48.1%
Necas
36.0%▼
38.0%
41.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 17, 2024 | 3 | 00:47 | Defensive | Martin Necas |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 3 | 12:54 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 2 | 07:50 | Offensive | Martin Necas |
| Dec 7, 2024 | 2 | 07:31 | Defensive | Martin Necas |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 2 | 01:51 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 3 | 10:42 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 3 | 10:37 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 8, 2022 | 3 | 13:44 | Offensive | Martin Necas |