Scouting Report
Matt Hendricks holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.5% vs Hendricks 49.5% (-1.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 66.5%
Defensive zone
Hendricks 70.0%
Neutral zone
Hendricks 57.3%
Result
Matt Hendricks favored at 57.6%
42.4%
57.6%
Nelson
Hendricks
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Nelson
Hendricks
Last 9: Nelson 7-2 Hendricks
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Hendricks
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Nelson
Hendricks
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
0
Nelson
Hendricks
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Hendricks
Edge
Even Strength
48.0% (681)
50.3% (326)
-2.3%
Power Play
54.0% (87)
60.0% (5)
-6.0%
Penalty Kill
40.5% (37)
46.5% (127)
-6.0%
On power play, Hendricks has a +6.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hendricks shoots left. Nelson is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (555).
Nelson shoots left. Hendricks is 49.3% vs left-shot opponents (304).
Home / Away
Nelson
Hendricks
Home
51.1% (399)
47.1% (210)
Away
45.6% (406)
51.2% (248)
By Period
Nelson
Hendricks
P1
51.8%
50.0%
P2
47.5%
49.4%
P3
46.5%
48.6%
Final 5 min
51.1%
44.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Hendricks
60.0%▲
50.5%
49.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2017 | 3 | 12:13 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 29, 2017 | 3 | 12:03 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 29, 2017 | 2 | 16:38 | Defensive | Matt Hendricks |
| Dec 29, 2017 | 2 | 16:31 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 29, 2017 | 1 | 10:51 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 29, 2017 | 1 | 01:45 | Defensive | Matt Hendricks |
| Dec 23, 2017 | 2 | 02:39 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 23, 2017 | 1 | 05:40 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 23, 2017 | 1 | 02:20 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |