Scouting Report
Matt Hendricks holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Hendricks 53.3% (-5.1%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 9-4 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 51.2%
Defensive zone
Hendricks 85.8%
Neutral zone
Hendricks 69.6%
Result
Matt Hendricks favored at 75.1%
24.9%
75.1%
Nelson
Hendricks
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
4
(13 meetings)
9
4
Nelson
Hendricks
Last 10: Nelson 8-2 Hendricks
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Hendricks
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hendricks
3
4
Nelson
Hendricks
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
0
Nelson
Hendricks
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Hendricks
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
55.0% (1,616)
-7.1%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
52.6% (38)
+1.9%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
48.4% (446)
-4.6%
On even strength, Hendricks has a +7.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hendricks shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Nelson shoots left. Hendricks is 55.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,233).
Home / Away
Nelson
Hendricks
Home
50.0% (5,845)
52.6% (1,023)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
54.3% (1,080)
By Period
Nelson
Hendricks
P1
48.7%
53.2%
P2
48.5%
53.3%
P3
47.7%
53.6%
OT
45.6%
75.0%
Final 5 min
47.8%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Hendricks
60.0%▲
50.5%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2017 | 3 | 12:13 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 29, 2017 | 3 | 12:03 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 29, 2017 | 2 | 16:38 | Defensive | Matt Hendricks |
| Dec 29, 2017 | 2 | 16:31 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 29, 2017 | 1 | 10:51 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 29, 2017 | 1 | 01:45 | Defensive | Matt Hendricks |
| Dec 23, 2017 | 2 | 02:39 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 23, 2017 | 1 | 05:40 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 23, 2017 | 1 | 02:20 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 28, 2016 | 1 | 13:44 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 28, 2016 | 1 | 02:24 | Defensive | Matt Hendricks |
| Feb 7, 2016 | 2 | 06:50 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 7, 2016 | 1 | 09:46 | Defensive | Matt Hendricks |