Scouting Report
Matt Stajan holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Stajan 49.4% (-1.1%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 70.1%
Defensive zone
Stajan 69.8%
Neutral zone
Nelson 51.1%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 52.1%
52.1%
47.9%
Nelson
Stajan
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
4
(11 meetings)
7
4
Nelson
Stajan
Last 10: Nelson 6-4 Stajan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
5
0
Nelson
Stajan
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Nelson
Stajan
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stajan
0
2
Nelson
Stajan
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Stajan
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
50.2% (4,944)
-2.3%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
43.2% (176)
+11.3%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
46.1% (864)
-2.3%
On power play, Nelson has a +11.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stajan shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Nelson shoots left. Stajan is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (3,964).
Home / Away
Nelson
Stajan
Home
50.0% (5,845)
51.3% (3,098)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
47.3% (2,892)
By Period
Nelson
Stajan
P1
48.7%
50.3%
P2
48.5%
48.5%
P3
47.7%
49.4%
OT
45.6%
53.3%
Final 5 min
47.8%
49.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Stajan
50.0%▬
49.5%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2018 | 2 | 16:36 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 11, 2018 | 1 | 11:10 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 11, 2018 | 3 | 14:37 | Neutral | Matt Stajan |
| Feb 11, 2018 | 3 | 03:15 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 11, 2018 | 2 | 19:55 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 5, 2017 | 1 | 02:10 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 28, 2016 | 1 | 14:59 | Defensive | Matt Stajan |
| Nov 28, 2016 | 1 | 07:28 | Neutral | Matt Stajan |
| Oct 26, 2015 | 1 | 10:56 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 2, 2015 | 3 | 03:18 | Defensive | Matt Stajan |
| Feb 6, 2014 | 1 | 17:23 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |