Scouting Report
Mikko Koivu holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 15 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Koivu 54.0% (-5.8%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 21-19 in 40 meetings
Offensive zone
Koivu 60.5%
Defensive zone
Koivu 65.6%
Neutral zone
Koivu 64.2%
Result
Mikko Koivu favored at 63.2%
36.8%
63.2%
Nelson
Koivu
Head-to-Head Record
21
-
19
(40 meetings)
21
19
Nelson
Koivu
Last 10: Nelson 8-2 Koivu
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
9
6
Nelson
Koivu
15 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Koivu
5
7
Nelson
Koivu
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
7
6
Nelson
Koivu
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Koivu
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
54.0% (9,465)
-6.1%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
58.6% (2,100)
-4.1%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
48.9% (1,688)
-5.1%
On even strength, Koivu has a +6.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Koivu shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Nelson shoots left. Koivu is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (8,701).
Home / Away
Nelson
Koivu
Home
50.0% (5,845)
55.8% (6,577)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
52.3% (6,719)
By Period
Nelson
Koivu
P1
48.7%
53.5%
P2
48.5%
54.6%
P3
47.7%
54.0%
OT
45.6%
56.5%
Final 5 min
47.8%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Koivu
44.0%▼
52.5%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 19, 2018 | 3 | 15:22 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 19, 2018 | 3 | 15:15 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 19, 2018 | 2 | 10:51 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 19, 2018 | 2 | 10:43 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 19, 2018 | 2 | 06:35 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 19, 2018 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikko Koivu |
| Feb 19, 2018 | 1 | 18:04 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 19, 2018 | 1 | 17:55 | Defensive | Mikko Koivu |
| Feb 19, 2018 | 1 | 11:57 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 26, 2017 | 2 | 19:34 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 26, 2017 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikko Koivu |
| Oct 23, 2016 | 3 | 17:12 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 23, 2016 | 2 | 09:26 | Defensive | Mikko Koivu |
| Oct 23, 2016 | 1 | 10:09 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 23, 2016 | 1 | 09:27 | Offensive | Mikko Koivu |
| Feb 23, 2016 | 3 | 03:16 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 23, 2016 | 2 | 09:35 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 23, 2016 | 1 | 18:42 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 23, 2016 | 1 | 15:03 | Defensive | Mikko Koivu |
| Feb 2, 2016 | 3 | 11:19 | Defensive | Mikko Koivu |