Scouting Report
Noah Laba holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Nelson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Laba shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Laba 50.8% (-2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 59.4%
Defensive zone
Laba 58.4%
Neutral zone
Laba 50.9%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 53.7%
53.7%
46.3%
Nelson
Laba
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Nelson
Laba
Last 5: Nelson 3-2 Laba
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Laba
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Laba
0
1
Nelson
Laba
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Laba
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Laba
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
50.8% (510)
-2.9%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
47.6% (21)
+6.9%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
55.9% (34)
-12.1%
On penalty kill, Laba has a +12.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Laba shoots right. Nelson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,075).
Nelson shoots left. Laba is 49.0% vs left-shot opponents (406).
Home / Away
Nelson
Laba
Home
50.0% (5,845)
50.6% (261)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
51.3% (304)
By Period
Nelson
Laba
P1
48.7%
55.1%
P2
48.5%
46.0%
P3
47.7%
51.8%
OT
45.6%
0.0%
Final 5 min
47.8%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Laba
44.0%▼
49.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2025 | OT | 01:38 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 07:53 | Defensive | Noah Laba |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 01:00 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 08:49 | Offensive | Noah Laba |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 17:41 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |