Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.6% vs Sundqvist 48.0% (+2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 73.5%
Defensive zone
Sundqvist 55.3%
Neutral zone
Nelson 52.6%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 73.5%
73.5%
26.5%
Nelson
Sundqvist
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Nelson
Sundqvist
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Sundqvist
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Sundqvist
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (694)
47.2% (284)
+2.8%
Power Play
56.3% (112)
80.0% (10)
-23.7%
Penalty Kill
42.0% (143)
43.7% (71)
-1.7%
On power play, Sundqvist has a +23.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sundqvist shoots right. Nelson is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (322).
Nelson shoots left. Sundqvist is 46.9% vs left-shot opponents (262).
Home / Away
Nelson
Sundqvist
Home
50.4% (472)
45.4% (185)
Away
48.6% (477)
49.4% (180)
By Period
Nelson
Sundqvist
P1
47.2%
44.6%
P2
53.4%
48.5%
P3
47.8%
49.5%
Final 5 min
47.6%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
49.5%
Sundqvist
44.0%▼
49.5%
47.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 00:44 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |