Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Sundqvist 47.6% (+3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 81.5%
Defensive zone
Nelson 55.4%
Neutral zone
Nelson 62.6%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 81.5%
81.5%
18.5%
Nelson
Sundqvist
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Nelson
Sundqvist
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Sundqvist
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Sundqvist
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
46.8% (301)
+3.9%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
80.0% (10)
-21.4%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
43.5% (85)
-0.1%
On power play, Sundqvist has a +21.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sundqvist shoots right. Nelson is 51.5% vs right-shot opponents (433).
Nelson shoots left. Sundqvist is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (291).
Home / Away
Nelson
Sundqvist
Home
52.3% (621)
46.0% (189)
Away
48.9% (618)
47.8% (207)
By Period
Nelson
Sundqvist
P1
48.4%
44.7%
P2
53.5%
47.6%
P3
50.3%
48.6%
OT
41.2%
100.0%
Final 5 min
50.8%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Sundqvist
44.0%▼
49.5%
47.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 00:44 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |