Brock Nelson vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Nugent-Hopkins 48.6% (+2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 55.3%
Defensive zone
Nelson 76.2%
Neutral zone
Nelson 62.8%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 65.7%
65.7%
34.3%
Nelson
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Nelson
Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Nugent-Hopkins
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Nugent-Hopkins
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
47.6% (231)
+3.1%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
83.3% (12)
-24.7%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
33.3% (21)
+10.1%
On power play, Nugent-Hopkins has a +24.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Nelson is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Nelson shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 49.4% vs left-shot opponents (168).
Home / Away
Nelson
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
52.3% (621)
51.2% (164)
Away
48.9% (618)
43.0% (100)
By Period
Nelson
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
48.4%
50.0%
P2
53.5%
46.2%
P3
50.3%
49.5%
OT
41.2%
0.0%
Final 5 min
50.8%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Nugent-Hopkins
58.0%▲
50.0%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 15:31 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 07:53 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 01:19 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 00:52 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |