Brock Nelson vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 12 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Nugent-Hopkins 44.8% (+3.6%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 19-12 in 31 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 71.2%
Defensive zone
Nelson 74.8%
Neutral zone
Nelson 71.3%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 72.2%
72.2%
27.8%
Nelson
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
19
-
12
(31 meetings)
19
12
Nelson
Nugent-Hopkins
Last 10: Nelson 8-2 Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
8
4
Nelson
Nugent-Hopkins
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
6
3
Nelson
Nugent-Hopkins
9 total
Neutral Zone
Even
5
5
Nelson
Nugent-Hopkins
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
44.9% (8,756)
+3.0%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
50.7% (839)
+3.8%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
37.9% (879)
+5.9%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +5.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Nelson shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 44.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,841).
Home / Away
Nelson
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
50.0% (5,845)
46.5% (5,350)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
42.9% (5,136)
By Period
Nelson
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
48.7%
45.1%
P2
48.5%
43.9%
P3
47.7%
45.3%
OT
45.6%
43.5%
Final 5 min
47.8%
43.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Nugent-Hopkins
58.0%▲
50.0%
44.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 15:31 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 07:53 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 01:19 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 00:52 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Nov 12, 2024 | 3 | 14:33 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 12, 2024 | 2 | 11:52 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 3 | 04:40 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 1 | 13:26 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Feb 21, 2019 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 21, 2019 | 1 | 18:26 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 16, 2019 | 2 | 16:19 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 16, 2019 | 2 | 01:43 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 16, 2019 | 2 | 01:25 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Feb 16, 2019 | 1 | 17:26 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Mar 8, 2018 | 1 | 16:57 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 8, 2018 | 1 | 16:44 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Nov 7, 2017 | 2 | 01:21 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 7, 2017 | 1 | 07:18 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 7, 2017 | 1 | 00:39 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 7, 2017 | 3 | 16:35 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |