Scouting Report
Sam Gagner holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Gagner on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Nelson wins 40.7% vs right-shot opponents — Gagner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 44.9% vs Gagner 47.2% (-2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gagner 77.8%
Defensive zone
Nelson 76.0%
Neutral zone
Nelson 52.9%
Result
Sam Gagner favored at 63.7%
36.3%
63.7%
Nelson
Gagner
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Nelson
Gagner
Last 6: Nelson 2-4 Gagner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gagner
1
3
Nelson
Gagner
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Gagner
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gagner
0
1
Nelson
Gagner
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Gagner
Edge
Even Strength
43.9% (715)
45.6% (651)
-1.7%
Power Play
61.5% (26)
53.8% (119)
+7.7%
Penalty Kill
41.4% (58)
0.0% (1)
+41.4%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +41.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gagner shoots right. Nelson is 40.7% vs right-shot opponents (295).
Nelson shoots left. Gagner is 46.9% vs left-shot opponents (488).
Home / Away
Nelson
Gagner
Home
42.9% (406)
47.1% (367)
Away
45.8% (393)
46.5% (404)
By Period
Nelson
Gagner
P1
44.1%
49.6%
P2
47.2%
47.9%
P3
42.2%
43.4%
OT
30.8%
43.8%
Final 5 min
39.9%
48.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
44.3%
Gagner
48.0%▲
41.5%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2015 | 3 | 10:42 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Feb 24, 2015 | 3 | 06:33 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 24, 2015 | 2 | 15:52 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Feb 24, 2015 | 2 | 06:50 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Nov 8, 2014 | 2 | 01:55 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Nov 8, 2014 | 1 | 10:30 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |