Scouting Report
Sam Gagner holds a +17.3% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 43.3% vs right-shot opponents — Gagner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Gagner 52.4% (-17.3%)
Offensive zone
Gagner 51.8%
Defensive zone
Nelson 67.3%
Neutral zone
Nelson 55.1%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 56.9%
56.9%
43.1%
Nelson
Gagner
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Gagner
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
76.5% (17)
-30.4%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
28.6% (7)
+5.9%
On even strength, Gagner has a +30.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gagner shoots right. Nelson is 43.3% vs right-shot opponents (240).
Nelson shoots left. Gagner is 61.1% vs left-shot opponents (18).
Home / Away
Nelson
Gagner
Home
48.7% (419)
75.0% (16)
Away
41.3% (368)
37.5% (8)
By Period
Nelson
Gagner
P1
44.6%
25.0%
P2
47.3%
64.3%
P3
43.0%
83.3%
Final 5 min
39.4%
70.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Gagner
48.0%▲
41.5%
62.5%