Scouting Report
Shawn Horcoff holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Horcoff on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Nelson wins 46.4% vs left-shot opponents — Horcoff shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 44.9% vs Horcoff 50.2% (-5.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 74.9%
Defensive zone
Nelson 74.3%
Neutral zone
Nelson 71.2%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 73.1%
73.1%
26.9%
Nelson
Horcoff
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Nelson
Horcoff
Last 9: Nelson 2-7 Horcoff
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Horcoff
1
2
Nelson
Horcoff
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Horcoff
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Horcoff
0
4
Nelson
Horcoff
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Horcoff
Edge
Even Strength
43.9% (715)
50.5% (374)
-6.6%
Power Play
61.5% (26)
55.0% (60)
+6.5%
Penalty Kill
41.4% (58)
39.5% (38)
+1.9%
On even strength, Horcoff has a +6.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Horcoff shoots left. Nelson is 46.4% vs left-shot opponents (504).
Nelson shoots left. Horcoff is 48.6% vs left-shot opponents (315).
Home / Away
Nelson
Horcoff
Home
42.9% (406)
50.2% (263)
Away
45.8% (393)
50.2% (209)
By Period
Nelson
Horcoff
P1
44.1%
49.0%
P2
47.2%
53.2%
P3
42.2%
48.7%
OT
30.8%
0.0%
Final 5 min
39.9%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
44.3%
Horcoff
62.0%▲
55.5%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2015 | 3 | 06:14 | Neutral | Shawn Horcoff |
| Mar 3, 2015 | 2 | 17:13 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 3, 2015 | 2 | 15:03 | Offensive | Shawn Horcoff |
| Mar 3, 2015 | 1 | 19:36 | Neutral | Shawn Horcoff |
| Mar 3, 2015 | 1 | 03:23 | Neutral | Shawn Horcoff |
| Mar 3, 2015 | 1 | 03:12 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 25, 2014 | 3 | 15:09 | Neutral | Shawn Horcoff |
| Oct 25, 2014 | 3 | 06:18 | Offensive | Shawn Horcoff |
| Oct 25, 2014 | 1 | 08:28 | Defensive | Shawn Horcoff |