Scouting Report
Shawn Horcoff holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Horcoff on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Horcoff 49.6% (-1.2%)
H2H factor
Horcoff leads 8-2 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 58.5%
Defensive zone
Nelson 50.6%
Neutral zone
Nelson 56.4%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 55.3%
55.3%
44.7%
Nelson
Horcoff
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
8
(10 meetings)
2
8
Nelson
Horcoff
Last 10: Nelson 2-8 Horcoff
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Horcoff
1
2
Nelson
Horcoff
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Horcoff
1
2
Nelson
Horcoff
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Horcoff
0
4
Nelson
Horcoff
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Horcoff
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
50.6% (3,133)
-2.7%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
51.4% (555)
+3.1%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
43.0% (567)
+0.8%
On power play, Nelson has a +3.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Horcoff shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Nelson shoots left. Horcoff is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (3,000).
Home / Away
Nelson
Horcoff
Home
50.0% (5,845)
51.1% (2,199)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
48.0% (2,104)
By Period
Nelson
Horcoff
P1
48.7%
48.2%
P2
48.5%
49.5%
P3
47.7%
50.9%
OT
45.6%
51.9%
Final 5 min
47.8%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Horcoff
62.0%▲
55.5%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2015 | 2 | 19:22 | Defensive | Shawn Horcoff |
| Mar 3, 2015 | 3 | 06:14 | Neutral | Shawn Horcoff |
| Mar 3, 2015 | 2 | 17:13 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 3, 2015 | 2 | 15:03 | Offensive | Shawn Horcoff |
| Mar 3, 2015 | 1 | 19:36 | Neutral | Shawn Horcoff |
| Mar 3, 2015 | 1 | 03:23 | Neutral | Shawn Horcoff |
| Mar 3, 2015 | 1 | 03:12 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 25, 2014 | 3 | 15:09 | Neutral | Shawn Horcoff |
| Oct 25, 2014 | 3 | 06:18 | Offensive | Shawn Horcoff |
| Oct 25, 2014 | 1 | 08:28 | Defensive | Shawn Horcoff |