Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Noesen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Noesen 44.6% (+4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Noesen 88.4%
Defensive zone
Noesen 58.5%
Neutral zone
Noesen 74.8%
Result
Stefan Noesen favored at 71.0%
29.0%
71.0%
Nelson
Noesen
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Nelson
Noesen
Last 5: Nelson 1-4 Noesen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Noesen
0
1
Nelson
Noesen
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Noesen
0
2
Nelson
Noesen
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Noesen
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Noesen
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
42.3% (407)
+5.6%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
46.5% (114)
+8.0%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
57.1% (14)
-13.3%
On penalty kill, Noesen has a +13.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Noesen shoots right. Nelson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,075).
Nelson shoots left. Noesen is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (387).
Home / Away
Nelson
Noesen
Home
50.0% (5,845)
43.8% (267)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
43.3% (268)
By Period
Nelson
Noesen
P1
48.7%
38.2%
P2
48.5%
45.3%
P3
47.7%
46.6%
Final 5 min
47.8%
46.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Noesen
46.0%▼
47.5%
43.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2023 | 3 | 14:40 | Neutral | Stefan Noesen |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 3 | 13:10 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 3 | 12:54 | Defensive | Stefan Noesen |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 3 | 12:51 | Defensive | Stefan Noesen |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 1 | 07:06 | Offensive | Stefan Noesen |