Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Gionta on defensive-zone draws (57% H2H, 7 meetings). Nelson wins 39.8% vs right-shot opponents — Gionta shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 43.7% vs Gionta 42.3% (+1.4%)
H2H factor
Gionta leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 54.0%
Defensive zone
Gionta 58.9%
Neutral zone
Gionta 56.3%
Result
Stephen Gionta favored at 56.9%
43.1%
56.9%
Nelson
Gionta
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
7
(13 meetings)
6
7
Nelson
Gionta
Last 10: Nelson 6-4 Gionta
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Gionta
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gionta
3
4
Nelson
Gionta
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gionta
2
3
Nelson
Gionta
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Gionta
Edge
Even Strength
42.1% (385)
40.5% (526)
+1.6%
Power Play
47.5% (40)
50.0% (2)
-2.5%
Penalty Kill
38.5% (26)
45.3% (53)
-6.8%
On penalty kill, Gionta has a +6.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gionta shoots right. Nelson is 39.8% vs right-shot opponents (196).
Nelson shoots left. Gionta is 39.9% vs left-shot opponents (414).
Home / Away
Nelson
Gionta
Home
43.8% (224)
46.3% (300)
Away
41.0% (227)
35.2% (281)
By Period
Nelson
Gionta
P1
48.1%
41.8%
P2
38.4%
42.0%
P3
39.2%
38.7%
OT
75.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
41.4%
43.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
42.4%
Gionta
50.0%▲
48.0%
41.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2014 | 3 | 17:33 | Defensive | Stephen Gionta |
| Apr 11, 2014 | 2 | 08:40 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 11, 2014 | 1 | 13:34 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 11, 2014 | 1 | 10:16 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 11, 2014 | 1 | 10:04 | Neutral | Stephen Gionta |
| Apr 11, 2014 | 1 | 00:49 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 11, 2014 | 1 | 00:43 | Neutral | Stephen Gionta |
| Mar 29, 2014 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 28, 2013 | 2 | 17:18 | Defensive | Stephen Gionta |
| Dec 28, 2013 | 1 | 06:23 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 28, 2013 | 1 | 06:14 | Defensive | Stephen Gionta |
| Dec 28, 2013 | 1 | 00:07 | Defensive | Stephen Gionta |
| Dec 28, 2013 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Stephen Gionta |