Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Gionta on defensive-zone draws (57% H2H, 7 meetings). Nelson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Gionta shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Gionta 41.2% (+7.5%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 9-8 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 81.0%
Defensive zone
Nelson 54.6%
Neutral zone
Nelson 64.1%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 62.2%
62.2%
37.8%
Nelson
Gionta
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
8
(17 meetings)
9
8
Nelson
Gionta
Last 10: Nelson 7-3 Gionta
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Gionta
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gionta
3
4
Nelson
Gionta
7 total
Neutral Zone
Even
4
4
Nelson
Gionta
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Gionta
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
40.6% (1,902)
+7.3%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
61.5% (26)
-7.0%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
40.1% (292)
+3.7%
On even strength, Nelson has a +7.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gionta shoots right. Nelson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,075).
Nelson shoots left. Gionta is 40.5% vs left-shot opponents (1,514).
Home / Away
Nelson
Gionta
Home
50.0% (5,845)
42.6% (1,074)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
39.1% (1,147)
By Period
Nelson
Gionta
P1
48.7%
40.8%
P2
48.5%
41.8%
P3
47.7%
39.8%
OT
45.6%
35.7%
Final 5 min
47.8%
39.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Gionta
50.0%▲
48.0%
40.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 19, 2016 | 2 | 02:29 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 3, 2015 | 1 | 03:25 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 15, 2014 | 1 | 07:12 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 29, 2014 | 2 | 13:28 | Neutral | Stephen Gionta |
| Apr 11, 2014 | 3 | 17:33 | Defensive | Stephen Gionta |
| Apr 11, 2014 | 2 | 08:40 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 11, 2014 | 1 | 13:34 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 11, 2014 | 1 | 10:16 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 11, 2014 | 1 | 10:04 | Neutral | Stephen Gionta |
| Apr 11, 2014 | 1 | 00:49 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 11, 2014 | 1 | 00:43 | Neutral | Stephen Gionta |
| Mar 29, 2014 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 28, 2013 | 2 | 17:18 | Defensive | Stephen Gionta |
| Dec 28, 2013 | 1 | 06:23 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 28, 2013 | 1 | 06:14 | Defensive | Stephen Gionta |
| Dec 28, 2013 | 1 | 00:07 | Defensive | Stephen Gionta |
| Dec 28, 2013 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Stephen Gionta |