Scouting Report
Troy Brouwer holds a +12.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Nelson wins 40.7% vs right-shot opponents — Brouwer shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 44.9% vs Brouwer 55.6% (-12.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Brouwer 83.7%
Defensive zone
Nelson 50.7%
Neutral zone
Brouwer 73.6%
Result
Troy Brouwer favored at 59.0%
41.0%
59.0%
Nelson
Brouwer
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Nelson
Brouwer
Last 5: Nelson 4-1 Brouwer
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Brouwer
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Brouwer
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Brouwer
Edge
Even Strength
43.9% (715)
56.1% (171)
-12.2%
Power Play
61.5% (26)
60.0% (170)
+1.5%
Penalty Kill
41.4% (58)
53.0% (100)
-11.6%
On even strength, Brouwer has a +12.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Brouwer shoots right. Nelson is 40.7% vs right-shot opponents (295).
Nelson shoots left. Brouwer is 57.0% vs left-shot opponents (314).
Home / Away
Nelson
Brouwer
Home
42.9% (406)
61.8% (225)
Away
45.8% (393)
51.9% (216)
By Period
Nelson
Brouwer
P1
44.1%
57.8%
P2
47.2%
49.0%
P3
42.2%
65.2%
OT
30.8%
0.0%
Final 5 min
39.9%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
44.3%
Brouwer
38.0%▼
46.0%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2015 | 3 | 11:08 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 21, 2015 | 2 | 11:57 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 28, 2014 | 3 | 13:50 | Defensive | Troy Brouwer |
| Nov 26, 2014 | 1 | 04:42 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 26, 2014 | 1 | 01:22 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |