Scouting Report
Troy Brouwer holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (57% H2H, 7 meetings). Nelson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Brouwer shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Brouwer 50.5% (-2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Brouwer 52.1%
Defensive zone
Brouwer 51.1%
Neutral zone
Brouwer 54.8%
Result
Troy Brouwer favored at 52.0%
48.0%
52.0%
Nelson
Brouwer
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Nelson
Brouwer
Last 9: Nelson 6-3 Brouwer
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
3
Nelson
Brouwer
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Brouwer
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Brouwer
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
50.3% (702)
-2.4%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
53.7% (551)
+0.8%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
46.6% (412)
-2.8%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Brouwer shoots right. Nelson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,075).
Nelson shoots left. Brouwer is 49.7% vs left-shot opponents (1,203).
Home / Away
Nelson
Brouwer
Home
50.0% (5,845)
53.5% (854)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
47.3% (811)
By Period
Nelson
Brouwer
P1
48.7%
51.4%
P2
48.5%
49.3%
P3
47.7%
51.2%
OT
45.6%
43.5%
Final 5 min
47.8%
46.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Brouwer
38.0%▼
46.0%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2018 | 3 | 12:20 | Defensive | Troy Brouwer |
| Mar 11, 2018 | 2 | 05:34 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 11, 2018 | 2 | 01:37 | Defensive | Troy Brouwer |
| Feb 21, 2015 | 3 | 11:08 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 21, 2015 | 2 | 11:57 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 28, 2014 | 3 | 13:50 | Defensive | Troy Brouwer |
| Nov 26, 2014 | 1 | 04:42 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 26, 2014 | 1 | 01:22 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 5, 2014 | 2 | 18:32 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |