Scouting Report
Tyler Bozak holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Bozak on offensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 16 meetings). Nelson wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Bozak shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.1% vs Bozak 53.4% (-5.4%)
H2H factor
Bozak leads 51-16 in 67 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 87.7%
Defensive zone
Nelson 85.1%
Neutral zone
Nelson 81.2%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 84.4%
84.4%
15.6%
Nelson
Bozak
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
51
(67 meetings)
16
51
Nelson
Bozak
Last 10: Nelson 3-7 Bozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bozak
2
14
Nelson
Bozak
16 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bozak
8
20
Nelson
Bozak
28 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bozak
6
17
Nelson
Bozak
23 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Bozak
Edge
Even Strength
47.8% (9,510)
53.7% (9,596)
-5.9%
Power Play
54.1% (1,082)
55.2% (1,990)
-1.1%
Penalty Kill
43.5% (728)
48.0% (1,094)
-4.5%
On even strength, Bozak has a +5.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bozak shoots right. Nelson is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (3,964).
Nelson shoots left. Bozak is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (8,417).
Home / Away
Nelson
Bozak
Home
49.8% (5,696)
56.0% (6,333)
Away
46.4% (5,625)
51.0% (6,396)
By Period
Nelson
Bozak
P1
48.6%
53.2%
P2
48.4%
52.8%
P3
47.4%
54.5%
OT
46.4%
52.9%
Final 5 min
47.4%
53.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
48.1%
Bozak
46.0%▼
48.5%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2020 | 3 | 13:39 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Feb 27, 2020 | 3 | 06:44 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Feb 27, 2020 | 2 | 18:47 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Feb 27, 2020 | 1 | 15:11 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Oct 14, 2019 | 3 | 19:33 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Oct 14, 2019 | 2 | 13:09 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Oct 14, 2019 | 2 | 13:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 14, 2019 | 2 | 09:24 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 5, 2019 | 1 | 11:47 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Mar 30, 2018 | 3 | 15:12 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 30, 2018 | 3 | 08:00 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Mar 30, 2018 | 3 | 01:45 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Mar 30, 2018 | 2 | 19:02 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Mar 30, 2018 | 2 | 15:05 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 30, 2018 | 1 | 05:38 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Feb 22, 2018 | 3 | 15:06 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 22, 2018 | 3 | 06:43 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Feb 22, 2018 | 2 | 15:51 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Feb 22, 2018 | 2 | 02:52 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Feb 22, 2018 | 1 | 10:24 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |