Scouting Report
Tyler Bozak holds a +8.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Bozak on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Nelson wins 40.7% vs right-shot opponents — Bozak shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 44.9% vs Bozak 53.0% (-8.9%)
H2H factor
Bozak leads 10-1 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 76.4%
Defensive zone
Nelson 75.9%
Neutral zone
Nelson 69.5%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 74.2%
74.2%
25.8%
Nelson
Bozak
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
10
(11 meetings)
1
10
Nelson
Bozak
Last 10: Nelson 1-9 Bozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bozak
0
2
Nelson
Bozak
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bozak
1
5
Nelson
Bozak
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bozak
0
3
Nelson
Bozak
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Bozak
Edge
Even Strength
43.9% (715)
53.8% (1,244)
-9.9%
Power Play
61.5% (26)
53.1% (356)
+8.4%
Penalty Kill
41.4% (58)
49.1% (175)
-7.7%
On even strength, Bozak has a +9.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bozak shoots right. Nelson is 40.7% vs right-shot opponents (295).
Nelson shoots left. Bozak is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,145).
Home / Away
Nelson
Bozak
Home
42.9% (406)
57.7% (892)
Away
45.8% (393)
48.6% (883)
By Period
Nelson
Bozak
P1
44.1%
54.0%
P2
47.2%
54.4%
P3
42.2%
51.0%
OT
30.8%
56.4%
Final 5 min
39.9%
52.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
44.3%
Bozak
46.0%▼
48.5%
53.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2015 | 3 | 14:48 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Mar 9, 2015 | 3 | 05:40 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Mar 9, 2015 | 3 | 02:51 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Mar 9, 2015 | 2 | 14:12 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 9, 2015 | 2 | 01:59 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Feb 12, 2015 | 1 | 05:51 | Offensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Oct 21, 2014 | 2 | 17:25 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Oct 21, 2014 | 2 | 17:20 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Oct 21, 2014 | 1 | 09:19 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Oct 21, 2014 | 1 | 05:21 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Oct 21, 2014 | 1 | 02:48 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |