Scouting Report
Tyler Bozak holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Bozak on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Nelson wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Bozak shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.6% vs Bozak 54.3% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 64.0%
Defensive zone
Nelson 61.4%
Neutral zone
Nelson 60.7%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 60.9%
60.9%
39.1%
Nelson
Bozak
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Nelson
Bozak
Last 8: Nelson 2-6 Bozak
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bozak
1
2
Nelson
Bozak
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bozak
1
4
Nelson
Bozak
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Bozak
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (902)
57.3% (483)
-6.6%
Power Play
59.8% (169)
57.5% (73)
+2.3%
Penalty Kill
48.3% (116)
42.3% (104)
+6.0%
On even strength, Bozak has a +6.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bozak shoots right. Nelson is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (455).
Nelson shoots left. Bozak is 52.4% vs left-shot opponents (485).
Home / Away
Nelson
Bozak
Home
53.6% (603)
57.8% (332)
Away
49.9% (585)
52.1% (328)
By Period
Nelson
Bozak
P1
55.4%
52.7%
P2
47.2%
55.6%
P3
52.6%
56.7%
OT
51.6%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.1%
54.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
51.8%
Bozak
46.0%▼
48.5%
55.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2020 | 3 | 13:39 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Feb 27, 2020 | 3 | 06:44 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Feb 27, 2020 | 2 | 18:47 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Feb 27, 2020 | 1 | 15:11 | Defensive | Tyler Bozak |
| Oct 14, 2019 | 3 | 19:33 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Oct 14, 2019 | 2 | 13:09 | Neutral | Tyler Bozak |
| Oct 14, 2019 | 2 | 13:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 14, 2019 | 2 | 09:24 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |