Scouting Report
Victor Rask holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Rask on neutral-zone draws (65% H2H, 20 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Rask 50.1% (-1.8%)
H2H factor
Rask leads 24-23 in 47 meetings
Offensive zone
Rask 56.1%
Defensive zone
Nelson 63.8%
Neutral zone
Rask 53.0%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 51.6%
51.6%
48.4%
Nelson
Rask
Head-to-Head Record
23
-
24
(47 meetings)
23
24
Nelson
Rask
Last 10: Nelson 2-8 Rask
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
6
6
Nelson
Rask
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
10
5
Nelson
Rask
15 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Rask
7
13
Nelson
Rask
20 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Rask
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
50.0% (4,428)
-2.1%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
54.3% (363)
+0.2%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
35.2% (54)
+8.6%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Rask shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Nelson shoots left. Rask is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (3,102).
Home / Away
Nelson
Rask
Home
50.0% (5,845)
52.0% (2,380)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
48.3% (2,465)
By Period
Nelson
Rask
P1
48.7%
50.7%
P2
48.5%
48.9%
P3
47.7%
50.7%
OT
45.6%
52.1%
Final 5 min
47.8%
48.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Rask
60.0%▲
49.5%
50.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 30, 2022 | 1 | 09:32 | Defensive | Victor Rask |
| Dec 29, 2019 | 2 | 06:59 | Offensive | Victor Rask |
| Dec 29, 2019 | 2 | 03:04 | Defensive | Victor Rask |
| Mar 17, 2019 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Victor Rask |
| Feb 10, 2019 | 1 | 12:33 | Neutral | Victor Rask |
| Jan 8, 2019 | 3 | 18:53 | Neutral | Victor Rask |
| Jan 8, 2019 | 3 | 18:42 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 8, 2019 | 2 | 02:40 | Neutral | Victor Rask |
| Nov 24, 2018 | 3 | 17:26 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 24, 2018 | 1 | 08:21 | Neutral | Victor Rask |
| Feb 16, 2018 | 3 | 03:07 | Offensive | Victor Rask |
| Feb 16, 2018 | 3 | 00:25 | Defensive | Victor Rask |
| Nov 16, 2017 | 3 | 07:50 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 16, 2017 | 2 | 19:58 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 16, 2017 | 2 | 11:19 | Neutral | Victor Rask |
| Nov 16, 2017 | 1 | 14:49 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 6, 2017 | 1 | 17:46 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 6, 2017 | 1 | 17:42 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 6, 2017 | 1 | 07:52 | Offensive | Victor Rask |
| Apr 6, 2017 | 1 | 07:45 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |