Scouting Report
Bryan Lerg holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Lerg on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lerg 50.4% vs Karlsson 46.1% (+5.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lerg 81.4%
Defensive zone
Lerg 54.4%
Neutral zone
Lerg 72.7%
Result
Bryan Lerg favored at 65.4%
65.4%
34.6%
Lerg
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
0
(5 meetings)
5
0
Lerg
Karlsson
Last 5: Lerg 5-0 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lerg
2
0
Lerg
Karlsson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lerg
3
0
Lerg
Karlsson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lerg
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
53.3% (30)
46.5% (744)
+6.8%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (3)
45.0% (149)
-11.7%
On penalty kill, Karlsson has a +11.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Lerg is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (26).
Lerg shoots left. Karlsson is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (566).
Home / Away
Lerg
Karlsson
Home
60.0% (20)
44.0% (425)
Away
38.5% (13)
47.1% (486)
By Period
Lerg
Karlsson
P1
60.0%
49.7%
P2
50.0%
41.4%
P3
46.2%
46.7%
Final 5 min
71.4%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lerg
56.8%▬
56.8%
51.5%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
45.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2015 | 3 | 18:26 | Neutral | Bryan Lerg |
| Nov 3, 2015 | 3 | 18:21 | Neutral | Bryan Lerg |
| Nov 3, 2015 | 3 | 15:29 | Defensive | Bryan Lerg |
| Nov 3, 2015 | 3 | 01:12 | Defensive | Bryan Lerg |
| Nov 3, 2015 | 2 | 19:01 | Neutral | Bryan Lerg |