Scouting Report
Bryan Lerg holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Lerg on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Lerg wins 56.7% vs left-shot opponents — Karlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lerg 51.8% vs Karlsson 51.3% (+5.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Karlsson 67.9%
Defensive zone
Karlsson 64.1%
Neutral zone
Karlsson 55.2%
Result
William Karlsson favored at 58.8%
41.2%
58.8%
Lerg
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
0
(5 meetings)
5
0
Lerg
Karlsson
Last 5: Lerg 5-0 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lerg
2
0
Lerg
Karlsson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lerg
3
0
Lerg
Karlsson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lerg
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
58.8% (34)
51.8% (7,849)
+7.0%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (3)
44.2% (1,109)
-10.9%
On penalty kill, Karlsson has a +10.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Lerg is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (30).
Lerg shoots left. Karlsson is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,551).
Home / Away
Lerg
Karlsson
Home
60.0% (20)
52.0% (5,090)
Away
52.9% (17)
50.5% (4,916)
By Period
Lerg
Karlsson
P1
60.0%
50.3%
P2
58.3%
51.3%
P3
53.3%
52.4%
Final 5 min
75.0%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lerg
56.8%▬
56.8%
56.8%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2015 | 3 | 18:26 | Neutral | Bryan Lerg |
| Nov 3, 2015 | 3 | 18:21 | Neutral | Bryan Lerg |
| Nov 3, 2015 | 3 | 15:29 | Defensive | Bryan Lerg |
| Nov 3, 2015 | 3 | 01:12 | Defensive | Bryan Lerg |
| Nov 3, 2015 | 2 | 19:01 | Neutral | Bryan Lerg |