Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.7% vs 50.1%). Look for Kelly on defensive-zone draws (69% H2H, 13 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Little 50.6% vs Kelly 50.1% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Kelly leads 19-10 in 29 meetings
Offensive zone
Little 60.0%
Defensive zone
Kelly 74.6%
Neutral zone
Kelly 62.5%
Result
Chris Kelly favored at 60.9%
39.1%
60.9%
Little
Kelly
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
19
(29 meetings)
10
19
Little
Kelly
Last 10: Little 2-8 Kelly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
4
5
Little
Kelly
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
4
9
Little
Kelly
13 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
2
5
Little
Kelly
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Little
Kelly
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (8,646)
51.1% (3,010)
-0.2%
Power Play
55.5% (1,593)
60.6% (71)
-5.1%
Penalty Kill
43.5% (1,406)
44.7% (689)
-1.2%
On power play, Kelly has a +5.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kelly shoots left. Little is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (7,844).
Little shoots right. Kelly is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,370).
Home / Away
Little
Kelly
Home
52.9% (5,664)
52.6% (1,965)
Away
48.6% (6,017)
47.4% (1,813)
By Period
Little
Kelly
P1
50.9%
49.2%
P2
49.6%
49.1%
P3
51.5%
51.9%
OT
49.1%
53.5%
Final 5 min
51.1%
50.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Little
46.0%▬
47.0%
50.7%
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
50.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2017 | 1 | 02:29 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 19, 2017 | 3 | 01:37 | Defensive | Bryan Little |
| Feb 19, 2017 | 2 | 10:40 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 19, 2017 | 1 | 11:33 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 19, 2017 | 1 | 07:57 | Neutral | Bryan Little |
| Dec 19, 2014 | 3 | 17:02 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Dec 19, 2014 | 2 | 16:13 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Dec 19, 2014 | 1 | 00:24 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 28, 2014 | 1 | 17:49 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 28, 2014 | 1 | 17:40 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 28, 2014 | 1 | 08:17 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Jan 21, 2013 | 3 | 19:58 | Offensive | Bryan Little |
| Jan 21, 2013 | 2 | 10:03 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 17, 2012 | 3 | 17:33 | Defensive | Bryan Little |
| Feb 17, 2012 | 3 | 07:45 | Defensive | Bryan Little |
| Feb 17, 2012 | 1 | 19:14 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Feb 17, 2012 | 1 | 11:54 | Offensive | Bryan Little |
| Jan 10, 2012 | 2 | 03:05 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Dec 6, 2011 | 3 | 04:50 | Neutral | Bryan Little |
| Dec 6, 2011 | 2 | 05:17 | Defensive | Bryan Little |