Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +8.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Little wins 45.9% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Little 46.5% vs Pavelski 53.9% (-8.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Little 76.5%
Defensive zone
Little 79.4%
Neutral zone
Little 80.8%
Result
Bryan Little favored at 78.2%
78.2%
21.8%
Little
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Little
Pavelski
Last 6: Little 1-5 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
2
Little
Pavelski
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
2
Little
Pavelski
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
1
Little
Pavelski
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Little
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
46.6% (982)
53.4% (682)
-6.8%
Power Play
52.4% (166)
63.7% (168)
-11.3%
Penalty Kill
37.6% (170)
48.1% (160)
-10.5%
On power play, Pavelski has a +11.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Little is 45.9% vs right-shot opponents (444).
Little shoots right. Pavelski is 56.1% vs right-shot opponents (230).
Home / Away
Little
Pavelski
Home
48.6% (623)
59.0% (527)
Away
44.2% (708)
49.3% (493)
By Period
Little
Pavelski
P1
46.3%
50.8%
P2
44.2%
58.9%
P3
48.1%
53.6%
OT
50.0%
42.9%
Final 5 min
48.9%
54.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Little
46.0%▬
47.0%
46.3%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2010 | 3 | 18:27 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 16, 2010 | 3 | 15:51 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 16, 2010 | 3 | 04:01 | Offensive | Bryan Little |
| Oct 16, 2010 | 2 | 04:55 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 16, 2010 | 2 | 01:11 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 16, 2010 | 1 | 19:45 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |