Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Little on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Little wins 46.4% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Little 46.5% vs Duchene 50.4% (-4.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 69.3%
Defensive zone
Little 53.1%
Neutral zone
Duchene 66.4%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 61.4%
38.6%
61.4%
Little
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Little
Duchene
Last 6: Little 4-2 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Little
2
1
Little
Duchene
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Little
2
0
Little
Duchene
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Little
Duchene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Little
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
46.6% (982)
50.5% (1,070)
-3.9%
Power Play
52.4% (166)
49.3% (136)
+3.1%
Penalty Kill
37.6% (170)
50.0% (20)
-12.4%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +12.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Little is 46.4% vs left-shot opponents (887).
Little shoots right. Duchene is 51.6% vs right-shot opponents (349).
Home / Away
Little
Duchene
Home
48.6% (623)
49.8% (633)
Away
44.2% (708)
51.1% (613)
By Period
Little
Duchene
P1
46.3%
51.0%
P2
44.2%
51.5%
P3
48.1%
49.1%
OT
50.0%
36.8%
Final 5 min
48.9%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Little
46.0%▬
47.0%
46.3%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
50.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 10, 2010 | 3 | 06:36 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 10, 2010 | 2 | 15:13 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 10, 2010 | 2 | 09:16 | Offensive | Bryan Little |
| Nov 30, 2010 | 2 | 19:24 | Defensive | Bryan Little |
| Nov 30, 2010 | 1 | 03:14 | Defensive | Bryan Little |
| Nov 30, 2010 | 1 | 00:29 | Offensive | Bryan Little |