Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Little on neutral-zone draws (79% H2H, 14 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Little 49.2% vs Duchene 52.0% (-3.1%)
H2H factor
Little leads 18-8 in 26 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 60.4%
Defensive zone
Duchene 81.9%
Neutral zone
Duchene 63.2%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 66.9%
33.1%
66.9%
Little
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
8
(26 meetings)
18
8
Little
Duchene
Last 10: Little 8-2 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Little
4
2
Little
Duchene
6 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Little
Duchene
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Little
11
3
Little
Duchene
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Little
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
49.5% (1,128)
52.6% (1,081)
-3.1%
Power Play
55.1% (216)
49.6% (119)
+5.5%
Penalty Kill
41.1% (207)
41.2% (17)
-0.1%
On power play, Little has a +5.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Little is 48.7% vs left-shot opponents (1,032).
Little shoots right. Duchene is 53.5% vs right-shot opponents (473).
Home / Away
Little
Duchene
Home
54.1% (756)
54.9% (625)
Away
44.4% (795)
49.3% (592)
By Period
Little
Duchene
P1
49.5%
52.7%
P2
50.2%
54.1%
P3
48.1%
49.5%
OT
44.7%
57.1%
Final 5 min
50.5%
46.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Little
46.0%▬
47.0%
49.1%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2015 | OT | 03:57 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 9, 2015 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Bryan Little |
| Apr 9, 2015 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Bryan Little |
| Apr 9, 2015 | 2 | 09:02 | Offensive | Bryan Little |
| Apr 9, 2015 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 9, 2015 | 1 | 07:12 | Defensive | Bryan Little |
| Apr 9, 2015 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Bryan Little |
| Feb 8, 2015 | 3 | 17:40 | Neutral | Bryan Little |
| Feb 8, 2015 | 2 | 19:39 | Neutral | Bryan Little |
| Feb 8, 2015 | 1 | 08:06 | Neutral | Bryan Little |
| Feb 8, 2015 | 1 | 03:16 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 8, 2015 | 1 | 00:49 | Offensive | Bryan Little |
| Dec 11, 2014 | 3 | 12:55 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 11, 2014 | 3 | 02:06 | Defensive | Bryan Little |
| Dec 11, 2014 | 2 | 11:16 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 11, 2014 | 2 | 06:13 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 11, 2014 | 2 | 03:29 | Offensive | Bryan Little |
| Oct 26, 2014 | OT | 04:01 | Defensive | Bryan Little |
| Oct 26, 2014 | 3 | 15:07 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 26, 2014 | 3 | 14:58 | Neutral | Bryan Little |