Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (59% H2H, 39 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Little 50.6% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-5.3%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 69-57 in 126 meetings
Offensive zone
Little 63.5%
Defensive zone
Little 65.2%
Neutral zone
Little 64.5%
Result
Bryan Little favored at 64.3%
64.3%
35.7%
Little
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
57
-
69
(126 meetings)
57
69
Little
O'Reilly
Last 10: Little 6-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
25
31
Little
O'Reilly
56 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
16
23
Little
O'Reilly
39 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Little
16
15
Little
O'Reilly
31 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Little
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (8,646)
56.2% (15,260)
-5.3%
Power Play
55.5% (1,593)
58.8% (3,445)
-3.3%
Penalty Kill
43.5% (1,406)
51.4% (2,811)
-7.9%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Little is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (7,844).
Little shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.7% vs right-shot opponents (7,689).
Home / Away
Little
O'Reilly
Home
52.9% (5,664)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
48.6% (6,017)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Little
O'Reilly
P1
50.9%
55.6%
P2
49.6%
57.0%
P3
51.5%
55.1%
OT
49.1%
62.2%
Final 5 min
51.1%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Little
46.0%▬
47.0%
50.7%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2018 | 3 | 16:30 | Offensive | Bryan Little |
| Dec 7, 2018 | 2 | 11:10 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 24, 2018 | 3 | 17:30 | Defensive | Bryan Little |
| Nov 24, 2018 | 3 | 07:04 | Neutral | Bryan Little |
| Nov 24, 2018 | 3 | 03:32 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 24, 2018 | 3 | 03:28 | Offensive | Bryan Little |
| Nov 24, 2018 | 1 | 17:38 | Offensive | Bryan Little |
| Oct 22, 2018 | 3 | 04:45 | Offensive | Bryan Little |
| Oct 22, 2018 | 2 | 19:39 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 4, 2018 | 3 | 16:35 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 4, 2018 | 3 | 12:03 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 4, 2018 | 3 | 05:51 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 4, 2018 | 2 | 10:47 | Defensive | Bryan Little |
| Oct 4, 2018 | 1 | 15:47 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 4, 2018 | 1 | 13:12 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 9, 2018 | 3 | 11:46 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 9, 2018 | 3 | 10:19 | Neutral | Bryan Little |
| Jan 9, 2018 | 3 | 08:38 | Defensive | Bryan Little |
| Jan 9, 2018 | 3 | 08:31 | Neutral | Bryan Little |
| Jan 9, 2018 | 2 | 17:39 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |