Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Little on defensive-zone draws (65% H2H, 17 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Little 50.6% vs Hertl 54.2% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 16-16 in 32 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 60.4%
Defensive zone
Hertl 53.1%
Neutral zone
Hertl 53.6%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 55.9%
44.1%
55.9%
Little
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
16
(32 meetings)
16
16
Little
Hertl
Last 10: Little 6-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
4
8
Little
Hertl
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Little
11
6
Little
Hertl
17 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Little
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Little
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (8,646)
53.8% (8,261)
-2.9%
Power Play
55.5% (1,593)
59.3% (1,970)
-3.8%
Penalty Kill
43.5% (1,406)
46.3% (806)
-2.8%
On power play, Hertl has a +3.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Little is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (7,844).
Little shoots right. Hertl is 56.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,122).
Home / Away
Little
Hertl
Home
52.9% (5,664)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
48.6% (6,017)
52.8% (5,693)
By Period
Little
Hertl
P1
50.9%
53.5%
P2
49.6%
54.1%
P3
51.5%
55.3%
OT
49.1%
46.5%
Final 5 min
51.1%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Little
46.0%▬
47.0%
50.7%
Hertl
54.0%▼
58.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2019 | 2 | 09:29 | Defensive | Bryan Little |
| Nov 1, 2019 | 2 | 04:24 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 12, 2019 | 3 | 17:05 | Defensive | Bryan Little |
| Mar 12, 2019 | 3 | 11:44 | Defensive | Bryan Little |
| Mar 12, 2019 | 3 | 10:20 | Defensive | Bryan Little |
| Mar 12, 2019 | 3 | 04:45 | Neutral | Bryan Little |
| Feb 5, 2019 | 3 | 18:25 | Offensive | Bryan Little |
| Feb 5, 2019 | 2 | 04:23 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 20, 2018 | 3 | 12:35 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 20, 2018 | 2 | 16:50 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 20, 2018 | 2 | 08:26 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 20, 2018 | 1 | 09:58 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 20, 2018 | 1 | 09:44 | Defensive | Bryan Little |
| Jan 23, 2018 | 1 | 04:47 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 7, 2018 | 3 | 16:38 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 7, 2018 | 3 | 14:21 | Defensive | Bryan Little |
| Jan 7, 2018 | 3 | 14:06 | Defensive | Bryan Little |
| Jan 7, 2018 | 3 | 04:10 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 7, 2018 | 3 | 02:03 | Defensive | Bryan Little |
| Jan 7, 2018 | 2 | 13:28 | Defensive | Bryan Little |