Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Little on defensive-zone draws (65% H2H, 17 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Little 50.6% vs Hertl 54.1% (-3.4%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 16-16 in 32 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 57.8%
Defensive zone
Hertl 52.8%
Neutral zone
Hertl 52.4%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 54.6%
45.4%
54.6%
Little
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
16
(32 meetings)
16
16
Little
Hertl
Last 10: Little 6-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
4
8
Little
Hertl
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Little
11
6
Little
Hertl
17 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Little
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Little
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (8,646)
53.6% (8,077)
-2.7%
Power Play
55.5% (1,593)
59.7% (1,916)
-4.2%
Penalty Kill
43.5% (1,406)
46.0% (793)
-2.5%
On power play, Hertl has a +4.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Little is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (7,844).
Little shoots right. Hertl is 56.7% vs right-shot opponents (4,031).
Home / Away
Little
Hertl
Home
52.9% (5,664)
55.6% (5,217)
Away
48.6% (6,017)
52.7% (5,569)
By Period
Little
Hertl
P1
50.9%
53.6%
P2
49.6%
53.9%
P3
51.5%
55.1%
OT
49.1%
46.8%
Final 5 min
51.1%
54.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Little
46.0%▬
47.0%
50.7%
Hertl
58.0%▬
58.5%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2019 | 2 | 09:29 | Defensive | Bryan Little |
| Nov 1, 2019 | 2 | 04:24 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 12, 2019 | 3 | 17:05 | Defensive | Bryan Little |
| Mar 12, 2019 | 3 | 11:44 | Defensive | Bryan Little |
| Mar 12, 2019 | 3 | 10:20 | Defensive | Bryan Little |
| Mar 12, 2019 | 3 | 04:45 | Neutral | Bryan Little |
| Feb 5, 2019 | 3 | 18:25 | Offensive | Bryan Little |
| Feb 5, 2019 | 2 | 04:23 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 20, 2018 | 3 | 12:35 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 20, 2018 | 2 | 16:50 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 20, 2018 | 2 | 08:26 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 20, 2018 | 1 | 09:58 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 20, 2018 | 1 | 09:44 | Defensive | Bryan Little |
| Jan 23, 2018 | 1 | 04:47 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 7, 2018 | 3 | 16:38 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 7, 2018 | 3 | 14:21 | Defensive | Bryan Little |
| Jan 7, 2018 | 3 | 14:06 | Defensive | Bryan Little |
| Jan 7, 2018 | 3 | 04:10 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 7, 2018 | 3 | 02:03 | Defensive | Bryan Little |
| Jan 7, 2018 | 2 | 13:28 | Defensive | Bryan Little |