Scouting Report
Chris Kelly holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Kelly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 47.3% vs Kelly 50.1% (-3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 78.7%
Defensive zone
Kelly 57.9%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 56.5%
Result
Cal O'Reilly favored at 64.0%
64.0%
36.0%
O'Reilly
Kelly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
O'Reilly
Kelly
Last 7: O'Reilly 2-5 Kelly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
0
3
O'Reilly
Kelly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
0
1
O'Reilly
Kelly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
1
O'Reilly
Kelly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Kelly
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (800)
51.1% (3,010)
-4.6%
Power Play
50.4% (129)
60.6% (71)
-10.2%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (8)
44.7% (689)
+5.3%
On power play, Kelly has a +10.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kelly shoots left. O'Reilly is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (636).
O'Reilly shoots left. Kelly is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (2,408).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Kelly
Home
50.6% (480)
52.6% (1,965)
Away
43.2% (465)
47.4% (1,813)
By Period
O'Reilly
Kelly
P1
47.1%
49.2%
P2
46.7%
49.1%
P3
46.8%
51.9%
OT
54.5%
53.5%
Final 5 min
43.8%
50.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
52.0%▲
50.5%
47.0%
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
50.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2012 | 3 | 06:45 | Neutral | Cal O'Reilly |
| Dec 28, 2011 | 3 | 01:48 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Dec 28, 2011 | 2 | 01:47 | Neutral | Cal O'Reilly |
| Dec 28, 2011 | 1 | 12:58 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Dec 28, 2011 | 1 | 01:21 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |
| Dec 23, 2010 | 1 | 13:51 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Dec 23, 2010 | 1 | 01:59 | Offensive | Chris Kelly |