Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Eller on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 47.3% vs Eller 50.5% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 69.4%
Defensive zone
Eller 70.7%
Neutral zone
Eller 51.6%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 60.9%
39.1%
60.9%
O'Reilly
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
O'Reilly
Eller
Last 8: O'Reilly 4-4 Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
0
O'Reilly
Eller
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
2
3
O'Reilly
Eller
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
O'Reilly
Eller
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (800)
51.1% (10,296)
-4.6%
Power Play
50.4% (129)
52.8% (621)
-2.4%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (8)
46.7% (1,751)
+3.3%
On even strength, Eller has a +4.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. O'Reilly is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (636).
O'Reilly shoots left. Eller is 50.9% vs left-shot opponents (8,123).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Eller
Home
50.6% (480)
51.4% (6,118)
Away
43.2% (465)
49.7% (6,578)
By Period
O'Reilly
Eller
P1
47.1%
51.2%
P2
46.7%
50.1%
P3
46.8%
50.2%
OT
54.5%
56.7%
Final 5 min
43.8%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
52.0%▲
50.5%
47.0%
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 25, 2016 | 2 | 16:16 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 25, 2016 | 1 | 04:57 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Feb 7, 2012 | 3 | 07:32 | Neutral | Cal O'Reilly |
| Feb 7, 2012 | 2 | 02:02 | Defensive | Cal O'Reilly |
| Nov 10, 2011 | OT | 01:23 | Defensive | Cal O'Reilly |
| Nov 10, 2011 | 2 | 01:32 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Nov 10, 2011 | 2 | 01:19 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 10, 2011 | 1 | 00:45 | Offensive | Cal O'Reilly |