Scouting Report
Todd Marchant holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Marchant on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). O'Reilly wins 46.6% vs left-shot opponents — Marchant shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 47.1% vs Marchant 48.3% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
Marchant leads 9-3 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 79.0%
Defensive zone
Marchant 63.4%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 56.1%
Result
Cal O'Reilly favored at 53.7%
53.7%
46.3%
O'Reilly
Marchant
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
9
(12 meetings)
3
9
O'Reilly
Marchant
Last 10: O'Reilly 3-7 Marchant
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
1
O'Reilly
Marchant
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Marchant
0
5
O'Reilly
Marchant
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Marchant
1
3
O'Reilly
Marchant
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Marchant
Edge
Even Strength
46.2% (403)
50.5% (368)
-4.3%
Power Play
48.1% (79)
28.6% (7)
+19.5%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (8)
42.4% (158)
+7.6%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +19.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Marchant shoots left. O'Reilly is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (341).
O'Reilly shoots left. Marchant is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (399).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Marchant
Home
48.1% (243)
50.3% (302)
Away
44.9% (254)
45.1% (246)
By Period
O'Reilly
Marchant
P1
43.2%
46.3%
P2
45.6%
49.7%
P3
50.9%
48.1%
OT
42.9%
44.4%
Final 5 min
48.0%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
52.0%▲
50.5%
46.5%
Marchant
50.0%▬
50.0%
48.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2010 | 2 | 12:39 | Neutral | Todd Marchant |
| Nov 7, 2010 | 1 | 04:59 | Defensive | Todd Marchant |
| Oct 9, 2010 | 3 | 18:37 | Offensive | Cal O'Reilly |
| Oct 9, 2010 | 3 | 17:32 | Defensive | Todd Marchant |
| Oct 9, 2010 | 3 | 17:12 | Defensive | Todd Marchant |
| Oct 9, 2010 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Todd Marchant |
| Oct 9, 2010 | 2 | 16:05 | Defensive | Todd Marchant |
| Oct 9, 2010 | 2 | 08:07 | Offensive | Cal O'Reilly |
| Oct 9, 2010 | 2 | 04:10 | Neutral | Todd Marchant |
| Oct 9, 2010 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Cal O'Reilly |
| Oct 9, 2010 | 1 | 16:24 | Offensive | Todd Marchant |
| Oct 9, 2010 | 1 | 10:36 | Defensive | Todd Marchant |